IATA predicts doubling in global air passenger demand by 2050, led by Asia‑Pacific and Africa

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its Long‑Term Air Transport Passenger Demand Projections report, forecasting continued expansion of global air travel through 2050 in a range of economic scenarios. The analysis provides projections of industry activity to mid‑century, offering insights for policymakers, airport operators and airlines planning future capacity.

image: IATA (extract from report cover)

IATA’s long‑term model outlines three scenarios — low, mid and high growth — based on future trends in economic activity, population changes, fuel prices and aviation capacity development.

Under the high‑growth scenario, global passenger traffic measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) could reach about 21.9 trillion by 2050, rising from approximately 9 trillion in 2024, implying an average annual growth rate of around 3.3%.

The mid‑growth scenario projects RPK at around 20.8 trillion by 2050, equivalent to an annual average increase of about 3.1%.

Even in the low‑growth scenario, demand is forecast to grow to roughly 19.5 trillion RPK by 2050, with a compound annual growth rate near 2.9%.

While developed markets such as Europe and North America are expected to remain among the world’s largest aviation markets in absolute terms, emerging regions are projected to drive the strongest relative growth.

Asia‑Pacific is forecast to lead growth across all major scenarios, with compound annual growth rates close to 3.5 - 3.9%.

Africa is also projected to see fast expansion, with annual growth of roughly 3.2 - 3.9% across the scenarios, reflecting demographic and economic trends.

The Middle East is similarly expected to post robust increases, though slightly more moderate under lower growth assumptions.

By comparison, intra‑Europe and Europe–North America passenger flows are expected to grow more slowly, with annual increases nearer 2.0 - 2.2%.

The projections also highlight particularly strong expansion in connections within and between the fastest‑growing regions, such as intra‑Africa and Africa–Asia‑Pacific routes.

For the UK, where major airport expansion programmes are underway or under consideration, the IATA projections reinforce the case for forward planning to accommodate future passenger demand and underscores the importance of aligning infrastructure investment, regulatory frameworks and environmental strategies.

IATA points out that all long‑term projections are inherently uncertain, but highlights the reliability of its modelling, citing a close alignment between past projections and actual outcomes.